Research on determination method of carbon reduction paths in industrial field of low-carbon city construction

Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerating urbanization, the industrial field, as a core source of urban carbon emissions, requires structural optimization as a key path for low-carbon city construction. Taking Bozhou City as a case study, this paper integrates low-carbon city construction requirements to construct an evaluation system for industrial development that includes dimensions such as industrial scale, industrial competitiveness, technological innovation, and sustainability. It further introduces a low-carbon potential correlation coefficient to quantify the low-carbon development potential of industries. Through principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis, a comprehensive decision-making model for leading industries in low-carbon city construction is established. An empirical analysis of 24 industrial sectors in Bozhou City categorizes them into four types based on their development status and low-carbon potential, and proposes differentiated development strategies. The results indicate that the industries like pharmaceutical manufacturing and wine, beverage and refined tea production possess development foundations and low-carbon potential, qualifying as core leading sectors. The industries like wood processing require green technologies to drive low-carbon transformation, while the industries such as metal products need technological breakthroughs to advance industrial development. This study provides scientific decision-making support for optimizing urban industrial structures and promoting low-carbon transformation.